The 2020 United States presidential election was perhaps the most polarizing and divisive in history, with Joe Biden ultimately emerging victorious. However, many have speculated that, despite his victory, it may not last long. With the 2024 election cycle quickly approaching, the focus is turning towards the six swing states that could determine who occupies the White House in 2025.
The six swing states are Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Arizona. Each of these six states offers specific advantages for the major candidates. From an electoral perspective, they offer a multitude of electoral votes, with most being worth more than four percent of the electoral college votes. Their majority of voters often lean Republican or Democratic, meaning that they offer the potential to swing an election in either direction.
Florida has been a swing state since 1960, with both parties often vying for its 29 electoral votes. Although historically a Republican stronghold, its demographics are ever-changing. It is home to large numbers of retirees and the conservative-leaning Cuban community, both of which could shape the outcome of the election.
Ohio is an unreliable state when it comes to presidential elections, with its 18 electoral votes having changed hands in almost all presidential elections in the past 20 years. Democrats are increasingly becoming the dominant party in its metropolitan cities, while rural areas still trend towards Republicans.
Pennsylvania is a vital state in presidential elections, with its 20 electoral votes. It has voted with the majority since 1988, and its outcomes generally mirror the nation’s swing from red to blue.
Michigan has gone Democratic in the last two election cycles, but it is a much more competitive state than it used to be. Its 16 electoral votes can swing an election in either direction, with the presidential candidates needing to focus their efforts in the heavily populated areas of the state.
Wisconsin is the closest swing state in terms of electoral votes, with its 10 being only a few percentage points away from either party in the last few elections. It is a must-win state for any presidential candidate looking to get a higher percentage of the electoral college votes.
Finally, Arizona is perhaps the most surprising swing state of the bunch, with its 11 electoral votes. It has been traditionally Republican since 1952, though its urban areas are increasingly switching sides and becoming Democrat.
These six swing states are essential to determining the outcome of the next presidential election. With Biden looking for a second term in office, it will be interesting to see how each state’s demographics play in his favor. For the 2024 presidential election, these battleground states will be the center of attention and will be essential in deciding who will win the White House.