In 2024, President Joe Biden’s re-election race could be the tightest election yet. With the current polls, Biden is at a larger polling deficit than Barack Obama was in 2011, indicating a possible close race.
This could be due to Biden’s lack of strong party identification and the reports of his wife, Dr. Jill Biden, potentially running for president. Without the support of a unified Democratic base and faced with increasing distrust of Biden supporters in some circles, the incumbent president is in an uphill battle for the White House.
Despite this, Biden is still in a strong position. In 2011, Obama was also in a difficult position, yet he still managed to take the White House. To achieve the same success, Biden’s campaign may need to focus on appealing to swing voters and also increasing voter turnout. The president will need to use the power of the incumbency to his advantage, pushing his policy ideas and highlighting the accomplishments of his first term.
Biden is no stranger to close elections, most notably winning the 2020 presidential race by the closest electoral college vote since 2004, and a razor thin margin in the popular vote and in key swing states.
The polling deficit Biden currently faces is attributed to a fractured Democratic base and the presence of other primary opponents. Biden’s current rating with independents and his lack of connection with those in the moderate and progressive wings of the party must be taken into account.
On the other hand, Biden has gained strong support from young voters and minority communities, all of which are key to a potential victory in the upcoming election. He also has the support of figures in the business world, and influential party members.
The 2020 election showed that polls do not dictate the final outcome, and Biden could exert the same type of power and influence he had before to turn the 2024 election into a victory.