As West Virgina Senator Joe Manchin considers a run for the White House in the 2020 elections, the question arises as to whether or not he could be a spoiler and throw the election to President Donald Trump.
Manchin has been vocal in his criticism of Trump, although he has not entirely ruled out voting for him in the upcoming election. But as a relatively moderate Democrat, Manchin could split the vote in November and provide Trump with a win, much like Ralph Nader did in the 2000 election when he drew votes away from Al Gore.
However, Manchin is unlikely to have the same impact as Nader. For one, he has failed to gain much traction in the polls. Even if he does get on the ballot in November, his candidacy would likely receive scant support. After all, there are many other Democratic candidates in the running, and it seems unlikely that voters would shift to an unknown such as Manchin.
In addition, Manchin’s personal views could make him an unpopular choice even among those in his party. His pro-corporate leanings, including his support for the business-friendly cut in the corporate tax rate that Trump advocated, won’t go down well with progressives.
For all of these reasons, it’s unlikely that Manchin’s candidacy would be a deciding factor in the 2020 elections. Without widespread support, his run is likely to be only a minor blip on the electoral radar. Ultimately, Manchin’s impact will depend on his ability to appeal to Democratic voters, something that he has yet to accomplish.