Today, the House of Representatives may be voting on a third round of the Speaker of the House contest, but the path forward remains unclear for both candidates – current Speaker Nancy Pelosi and challenger Rep. Kevin McCarthy.
It is likely that Pelosi will be elected on the third round given the support she has promised from the majority of her caucus. With the election of the Speaker set for Thursday, Republicans have been placing pressure on House Democrats to abandon Pelosi and back McCarthy.
The latest round of voting is the last chance for the Democratic party to determine their choice before the final vote. If a Democratic member fails to reach a majority in the third round, the House will move on to a fourth ballot – which could eventually result in a tie.
This would force members to select either GOP contender Kevin McCarthy or Democratic candidate Rep. Marcia Fudge as a compromise pick. This would be a historic move and highly unlikely outcome.
Roughly six Democrats defecting from Pelosi and backing McCarthy has been the focus of the race, and only one of them – Rep. Joe Cunningham – has done so publicly. Rep. Bud Shuster has said he will be abstaining from the vote.
In addition to the defectors, other key House Democrats have voiced their support of another candidate, which could prevent Pelosi from receiving a majority. At least six members of the Blue Dog Coalition – a group of moderate to conservative Democrats – have refused to back Pelosi, which could add difficulty for her in the final vote.
By monitoring the reactions from both House Democrats and Republicans, one can get a sense of the course of the Speaker’s race and the importance of the upcoming third-round vote. There is much at stake for both parties, and the outcome of the vote could significantly shape the future of the House of Representatives.