RICE inventories will be under pressure next year because the El Niño dry spell will also hit the Philippines’ major rice suppliers, Thailand and Vietnam, a farming industry association said.
“Next year, we will have low stocks going into the lean months… because Thailand and Vietnam will also be hit by (El Niño). The international price may also increase,” according to Raul Q. Montemayor, national manager of the Federation of Free Farmers.
Speaking at a virtual forum, Mr. Montemayor said El Niño’s impact will be felt by the dry season crop in the first half of 2024, when Philippine rice can count on limited irrigation water.
“Also, the carryover stock from 2023 may be lower than normal,” he said.
As of January 1, the Philippine rice inventory was 1.77 million metric tons, down 5.1% from a year earlier, according to the Philippine Statistics Authority.
Mr. Montemayor said the “most intense” El Niño episode took place between 1997 and 1998, which caused a 24% drop in the production of palay (unmilled rice).
He said PAGASA (Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration), the government weather service, is reviewing previous occurrences to gauge the potential impact of El Niño this year.
PAGASA Assistant Weather Services Chief Ana Liza S. Solis said that some areas in the country may experience a 22-50% reduction in rainfall starting October.
“There are 36 provinces with the potential for a dry spell by the end of December, while two provinces have the potential for drought by end of December,” she said, citing the agency’s initial assessment. — Sheldeen Joy Talavera